Keir’s Top 5 Stock Picks – May 2020

All old lives matter. Wow, I’ve never before seen such overreaction to SARS v2.0. Lots of people got it. Few of them died (sorry if this strikes anyone as offensive and has actually lost someone due to the CV), but I don’t know of anyone who has gotten it or known of anyone who has gotten it. Either that or San Diego’s the place to be when a pandemic strikes out. Anyways, nothing changes for May 2020, best to wait for the deaths to stop, society to reopen and the election results become more clear. My money’s on Trump if I had to pick right now but I’m not going political and I’m not sure it even matters anyways.

The one thing this does expose is people’s power to save and hold enough cash to ride this out. Never bet the farm on anything. All you need if you’re single or mostly single is like a $30k emergency fund. Stick it in a savings account and don’t ever touch it until an event like this occurs again. Makes it way easier and you much more relaxed to do some things you can’t if you’re paycheck to paycheck.

I also like investing in real estate here, if you’ve saved the cash for a down payment. As the threat of death looms over people’s mind’s, 401K’s will lose some luster (who knows if you’ll make it to 65 – even then every dollar gets taxed of your gains once you start pulling money or right now if you do a Roth IRA). For real estate, the first $250k is tax-free…

So here it is, another boring top-5:

  1. Cash
  2. Cash
  3. Cash
  4. Cash
  5. Cash

Sorry, there’s some upside in bank stocks but too many downside risks right now to invest in anything.

Keir’s Top 5 Stock Picks – April 2020

Wow, who would have known a bad flu multiplied by negative media press would cause such damage to the economy and markets. Like Warren Buffet, I guess I’ve seen it all. Due to these circumstances, I am changing my investment strategy. Save all your cash, wait for a panic and short-sell the panic. Way more easier to make money by letting sucker’s pump the market then waiting for a panic and shorting the market down. That being said, there are some values out there, but I wouldn’t expect any immediate returns as this whole mess gets sorted out. If it extends to the banks, watch out. Personally, I wouldn’t touch anything right now, bull or bear until mid-August to mid-October. Market’s too caught up with the press headlines. One day, the cased have subsided, one day unemployment is going to 20%, one day a new coronavirus has been discovered. Just stay away from buying anything right now…

  1. Cash
  2. Cash
  3. Cash
  4. Cash
  5. Cash

Keir’s Top 5 Stock Picks – March 2020

Wow, I didn’t realize SARS v2.0 could do so much damage in the near-term. I was going to advise to sell in May and go away but it appears this virus beat me to it. This is equivalent to the shut-down last year. Expect a soft 2 quarters, some volatility as the election progresses and then a relief recovery. So if you’re long, stay long unless this virus starts killing people like TWD. There should be plenty of buying opportunities before the end of the year. That being said, uncertainty over how bad this is going to be cause me to suggest a conservative route in the near term. So the Top-5 is relatively easy until the markets bottom out (I’d expect somewhere around the Dow at 25K)…

  1. Cash
  2. Cash
  3. Cash
  4. Cash
  5. TECL

Keir’s Top 5 Stock Picks – January 2020

Hope everyone had a safe and enjoyable New Year/End of the Decade. As we begrudgingly head back to our day jobs and the calendar year-end cleanup, I thought I’d drop a new Top 5 for January while I had some time…As I mentioned last month, I would not expect the same level of returns as last year’s profits, and with some potential uncertainty with Trump’s impeachment and the new election, I would predict a sell in May and go away year. Which makes earnings season plays the way to go in 2020 (along with commodities, particularly those tied to inflation – oil, gold, etc).

For a brief lesson on how to play earnings, in a month following the quarter-end (i.e. January) keep track of when Companies are slated to post earnings (usually after-market). In the final trading session before a Company releases earnings there’s usually a leak. Therefore, watch closely in the last hours of a trading session before the Company is required to report. Since my belief is we continue on in this bull cycle which started March 2009, any dips are considered buying opportunities. The big guys know this and once they receive validation of a leak will manipulate the Company’s share price based on whether they believe earnings have been met and prospects remain bright or there are signs of Company weakness.

Therefore, if a stock you’re tracking sets all-time highs an hour before it’s about to announce earnings, sell. It’s actually a sign of weakness as large institutional investors are pumping the stock one last time before having a reason to drop it significantly after-hours and in the next couple of trading sessions. Conversely, if the stock price of a Company you’re tracking drops before earnings are announced, it’s actually a sign of strength as the same large institutional investors will be pushing the stock price down in an effort to pop it after earnings are announced. Anyways, onto the Top 5 for the new decade…

  1. AMZN
  2. JPM
  3. AAPL
  4. MA
  5. GOOG

Purely Speculative – GUSH, OILU

Worth paying attention to (I’ll admit I’m not a big fan of gold, but with interest rates this low you can’t ignore any signs of potential inflation around the bend ) – UGLD, JNUG

Keir’s Top 5 Stock Picks – December 2019

As we await the signing of Phase I of the Tariff relief bill in the next week or so, the market slowly continues its year-end melt-up. As stock’s hang near all-time highs, 2019 was a great year for value investors like myself. Looking at next year, I’d expect only modest growth in high performing or highly innovative stocks combined with muted growth from financials and other industrials/cyclicals. Onto the Top 5…

  1. AMZN
  2. MA
  3. AAPL
  4. CI
  5. BA

High Risk, High Reward – Really like Oil here at these levels for some reason – any of the leveraged ETF’s should pay off down the road if you have a longer time horizon – GUSH, USOU, OILU

Last year’s news (time to cash out, if you’re still in) – Any CBD stocks – GWPH, CVSI

If the value/timing is right (wait for a pullback) – TSLA (closer to 300), GOOG (closer to 1150), CMG (closer to 750), HD (closer to 200)

Have a great remaining holidays and I’ll see you next year.

Keir’s Top 5 Stock Picks – November 2019

I apologize guys for not including an October update, but not much has changed in the past few months. My prediction that August would be the ideal buying month appears to have come true as all markets are up significantly since then. I believe the bull cycle which began in 2009 is still currently in tact and expect a year-end melt-up. So all my stock picks from previous months remain a hold. But I’ll provide a new top-5 for those looking to diversify some…

  1. AMZN
  2. ILMN
  3. CMG
  4. NFLX
  5. CI

High Risk/Reward – GUSH

Happy investing…

Keir’s Top 5 Stock Picks – September 2019

Alright, hopefully anyone and everyone who may have read my post last month used mid-late August as a time to put their cash to work. Unless you’re one of those who still believes in the stupid yield curve inversion that will cause an immediate recession (how many times do we need to hear that this year before it falls on deaf ears?) Anyways, an easy Top-5 this month…

  1. MA
  2. JPM
  3. CI
  4. QCOM
  5. WFC

High Risk, High Reward – GWPH

Keir’s Top 5 Stock Picks – August 2019

Aright, for those that have been/if following me, you know I’ve been advocating to either stay long or conserve cash and wait for a better buying time to emerge. August, I believe will be the best buying month of this year, so I’m going to provide a few different risk styles Top-5 for this month

Very Safe/Defensive (High Dividend):

  1. GS
  2. MA
  3. AAPL
  4. WFC
  5. JPM

Growth (Higher Risk):

  1. AMZN
  2. BIDU
  3. TSLA
  4. QCOM
  5. COST

Honerable Mentions:

  1. BABA
  2. V
  3. ILMN

Keir’s Top 5 Stock Picks – July 2019

So it appears the month June was able to provide some stability to the markets. I don’t foresee a lot of developments/volatility in the near term so I’d suggest one of two options – 1) Continue to sit on cash to see if a better buying opportunity arises later this year or 2) Dabble a bit using a more defensive strategy. As such, here are my Top 5 picks for July:

  1. Cash
  2. WFC
  3. GS
  4. TSLA
  5. BIDU

Stay away – Oil

Keir’s Top 5 Stock Picks – June 2019

Man, what a brutal May. As the Tariff Wars continue, it appears the old adage of sell in May and go away holds true this year. If you’re still long and willing/able to hold for a year, I’d advise to stay long to accumulate time on Capital Gains. Despite all the doom and gloom, the fundamentals still support the current bull cycle and a year from now we should be looking at new highs. But I do anticipate a flat or lower current market through the end of summer with a year-end melt-up possible. Which makes for an easy Top 5 this month:

  1. Cash
  2. Cash
  3. Cash
  4. Cash
  5. Cash

No one wants to catch a falling knife.