So I tried to take a break this month but with so much bad news out there…I guess I just felt morally obligated to leave at least one last blog entry to anyone who actually reads my blog. I’m really not sure what surprises tomorrow may bring, but we will need a modern day miracle to survive October 2021. Just a feeling though, as too many potential catastrophic events could tank the markets, spike treasury yields and create a potential panic and ultimately and unfortunately violence. I really hope this doesn’t happen but all the signals are there to just dump the markets right now. If I’m wrong, which I hope you can always just re-enter at a higher price. To me it’s not worth the risks right now, but that’s only my opinion.
So how about this? I compromise and instead of giving you a Top 5 stock picks, cause I really have none, I instead give you a Top 5 Risks in the markets right now and let you make your own educated decisions this month…
- Supply chain risks – aka the modern day SPanish Armada Conspiracy theory. If history repeats itself, all those container ships sitting on the ocean get washed away. Throw in the fact we’ve got a “Perfect Storm” scenario starting to form in the Atlantic Ocean right now with those 3 tropical storms. If they collide…it’s not good for whatever shore(s) they hit (see #3 below).
- Speaking of supply chain risks…What was the name of that container ship that was stuck in the channel earlier this summer again…Evergreen, Evergiven? Sounds a whole lot like Evergrande. Which happens to be a Chinese conglomerate currently in a 30-day grace period after technically defaulting on approximately $300B USD of debt. Spoiler alert – it’s the tip of the Iceberg out there. China’s again being silent about an event which could trigger a global contagion. Evergrande will not pay these debts, management has already bailed with any money left and while the “experts” want to tell you China’s got it contained and it is a non-event, where have we heard this storyline before? Sounds a lot like COVID to me which is just another way of saying the injection of communism into all society worldwide. I mean, does anyone really know what’s really in those vaccines? You would think Moderna, Pfizer, J&J and co. would be celebrating for saving all of humanity from this deadly scamdemic. Instead, they weren’t even at the table when the award was presented and have been mum on it since. Something smells rotten to me…and if this spreads as it appears to be spreading in the UK right now, we’re heading for a crash coincidentally expected to occur on the Monday following the Friday when the richest people in America pay taxes (October 15). And we all know what a great year all those banks and rich companies which were able to survive the panic had last year, so if I were personally facing a larger than usual tax bill and needed to pull money from somewhere, I’d start selling my positions in the markets to generate liquidity. Such a selloff the Friday before our projected US expected debt default date (see item #4) and the global contagion already spreading through parts of Europe crashes equities in America. The Great Correction begins (see item #5).
- Food and oil shortages everywhere – caused not surprisingly by item #1. This in addition to an “surprising” shortage of staff when our unemployment rate still appears somewhat elevated, but unable to find anyone to unload these ships. So if the ships are stuck at harbors and event #1 takes place, it’s only a matter of time before we run out of everything . A Great Panic ensues and it’s every individual for themselves…yikes. Costco is already rationing toilet paper to 1 package a day, water to 2 packages a day. So if I were investing in anything right now, non-perishable essentials jump to #1. I’m not saying build a bomb shelter yet, but if you got one, I’d make sure that it’s full, just in case. I mean, do you really want to be one of the many standing in line in front of Costco for 2 hours just hoping you get 1 item that your entire family needs to survive? Play it safe and stock up for a month or 2. It may not matter in the end but at least it will give you some peace of mind before we all get washed away.
- Stagflation – man, what a self-inflicted mess we’ve created…There is no such thing as a free lunch…there is no such thing as a free lunch…there is no such thing as a free lunch. The Fed thought they could contain inflation…what, are we already borrowing China’s playbook here? With winter around the corner, oil and natural gas look like obvious plays to me, but I do believe I gave you one last month so do your own research but proceed with caution due to #5.
- Sovereign debt loads – you know, what great theatre we have playing out in DC right now. Infighting in the Dems own party between moderates and progressives; and since somehow by chance, the election provided an exact 50/50 tie in the Senate…gridlock between Reps and Dems over who should own this debt increase. You know what really sucks about this? It’s all just a distraction, it all doesn’t matter. Even if they pass the smaller bill or the larger bill (unlikely for either because they’ve delayed the voting date until after the effects of the Evergrande cross-defaults and permanent supply chain disruptions are known), eyes will turn to sovereign debt exposure next. And if the UK is any indicator, sovereign debt load exposure ultimately sinks those ships (see below}. See the UK is number 2 in sovereign debt load and gas prices are rocking their economy right now…To further illustrate just how bad this could turnout, say for example, Evergrande defaults on all offshore debts. When the US is done evaluating the impacts of such acts, they decide to default back, forcing the entire Chinese government to then default on the US…currency wars ensue, bond yields rise, the dollar loses any value, anything remaining of the stock market crashes and you’re looking at a very potential Financial Armageddon moment. What’s worse is China has all our goods just sitting on their docks tethered to their land. You think this is a coincidence?…nope. This is just collateral should the US try to default back. You want it, come get it, we’ll sink it (or reallocate it to our own citizens to help cope with all the money losses off property and other ventures). Making the debt ceiling discussions really a mute point. Congress and the Feds hands are tied because they know they can’t bail out the entire world. That’s why you see the Fed officials dumping shares and heading for the exits, just like management at Evergrande. Communism (er, “common prosperity”) appears to be around the corner but it’s really just death to Democracy and at that point we’re all probably just dead anyways (hence this potentially last blog post).
Look, I really didn’t want to write this doomsday scenario but am I the only one that sees all these risks in the system right now or am I just crazy? I’ll let you decide. But for me, I’m completely out of equities right now as the upside is too limited and the risk of losing everything too great.
I mean, just writing this post makes me sick because even if by luck I somehow called the top to one of the greatest market crashes ever, what difference does it make if there’s nothing but pain and suffering after? I become the most hated man in the world…At the end of the day we’re all just human beings on the planet Earth just struggling to survive. Why does this look from my vantage point that it’s heading to war (RTX)?
Again, I’m not trying to be Dr Doom here, but it sure feels like 2008 again to me and it just makes me sick. That’s it I’m done…good luck to all and pray for a miracle. I have feeling it’s going to be a very volatile month to the downside. Adjust accordingly.✌️
Look out below. I think my last post was called the end of free money. Thinking further, with the upcoming tapering announcement, it’s really the end of the age of US accommodative money policy which began in 2007 (almost 15 years ago) prior to the last financial crisis. Combine that with a slowdown in the growth of the economy, the lack of further stimulus, inflationary and geopolitical pressures, supply chain constraints, an ongoing COVID pandemic, stretched equity valuations, the end of the SPAC craze and the fact that were heading into September, a historically bad period for the market – I see a nasty market correction on it’s way.
Note, not a recession, just a correction (unless the debt ceiling negotiations go south to the point the US defaults on its first debt obligation ever – not likely to me at the current time). Just bad news for all equities as I could see a 10% – 40% haircut, depending on what industry you’re in. Financials, Defense and Tech seem to be more adverse to it. But the Dow, S&P and Russell all look like huge targets to me. So I am going to completely liquidate all my equity positions, as difficult as that may be to me. Huge tax consequences for such an act, but why hold onto something at $100 / share when you may be able to buy it back at $60 – $75 / share in 2 – 6 months?
Again, I don’t believe we’re faced with a recession as that there is still growth. So this is temporary (I hope), but there are way too many risks right now for me to be excited about any equity stock right now (Note: I will be holding onto – marijuana stocks, as these were just lottery tickets to begin with, gold – no idea why except if the inflationary pressures are real and equities go south, the money will move somewhere and this seems to be the place it may end up, if not crypto. I will also be holding onto oil, palladium, platinum and other productive commodities due to inflationary and geopolitical pressures noted above).
Onto the Top 5:
- Cash (lots of it here)
- NGLOY, PAAS, NILSY, SWSW
High Risk / High Reward – SDOW, TZA, SPXS, SPXU, SMDD, LABD, FAZ
Sorry for the late post readers. I’ve been busy with work and when looking at the markets, there is really nothing I can see worth investing in at this time. Perhaps I’ve gone blind, but the end to free money seems near and after the end to this year, I’d probably start expecting way smaller returns <15% for the foreseeable future. Unless, of course, you know someone with insider knowledge and I think history has told us that never works out.
Key events in the near-term include the debt ceiling (I expect they increase it), the September mid-month quarterly Fed meeting (this will cause significant volatility, be prepared for one last buying opportunity, hopefully) and the end of COVID.
When COVID officially ends, if it ends, I’m going out on a limb here but I’d expect the end of COVID to also to signal the end of the SPAC craze (as business travel returns, roadshows will become the norm again as Companies attempt to return to public markets), the beginning of the end of Crypto and the end of free money.
For those who have followed this blog since it’s inception, it originally was an attempt to call a bottom to Google at $1,000. Today, that same stock trades at $2,720. Amazing how much money I’d really have right now if I only had more access to capital?
Also notable hits by this blog include Tesla at $248 (pre-split) and Amazon at $1,750. It’s been a fun ride, but it appears it’s all but coming to an end (until the next market crash that is). Then the buying opportunities begin again as over time, the market always recovers…Anyways, let’s make this a quick August top 5 so we can all get back to a somewhat more normal feeling summer…
Like I said, there’s really nothing I like at these prices and with the markets appearing to have no direction right now. All could change tomorrow, but that’s what September’s blog will be for.
Good luck to all out there who still are fighting this pandemic.
Wow, is it really July already? June seemed to fly by for some reason this year. Markets remained relatively unchanged and I continue to expect them to be somewhat choppy if June’s Fed announcement was any indicator. As a side note, I hope any readers of this blog took advantage and bought that dip. If not, I expect another dip in September, so you have some time. As far as equities, there’s not much I like here. I do think oil (currently at $75 goes to $100), but it’s about as speculative as I get here. I don’t see a lot of downside risk right now with the VIX currently being at 15, but I also don’t see a lot of market upside potential until this Delta variant of COVID disappears, unemployment drops below 5% and the Fed gives us more insight of when the first post-pandemic rate hike will likely happen (really a non-factor to me, but I’ll make money over the overreaction to the announcement again, should it occur).
While I may have been premature on the SPAC endgame, I’m pretty sure I know when this craze ends.
See all these SPACs are assumed to go public at $10 / share. As long as these SPAC’s can maintain the $10 initial offering price, the SPAC investors make money. A year ago or so when these SPACS got the IPO bump, some would shoot to $60 – $80+ / share. After adjusting for the $10 offering price, the SPAC investor achieves a 500% – 700%+ return on investment. Even if they fall back to $15 – $20 / share, the original SPAC investors still obtain a 50 -100% ROI. That’s all these are (a perceived guaranteed ROI play) and that’s also why the Bill Ackman’s of the world are now combining 3 SPACs into 1…
They’re hoping each will be perceived as a $15 – $20 / share company, allowing Mr. Ackman to achieve a 150% – 300% return again. At the end of the day though these are all just penny stock companies and when the values of these drop below $10 or an unmarried SPAC drops from $10 to $1, and stays under $10 after announcement of a deal, the SPAC investors lose money and the SPAC craze ends that day.
Anyways, if you’re still with me. Here’s an attempt at a Top-5 for June 2021, but like I said before, I think you’re still better off just conserving cash right now and waiting for one last dip before a hopeful year-end melt-up.
- Cash (you know the drill by now)
- GUSH (see oil going to $100 prediction above)
- CCL – Part of the reopen trade and I do like it at this price point, but think it will still pullback before summer-end
- HLI – Seems to be the hot investment bank right now…BNKU if you want to diversify with leveraged risk.
- DFEN – What the heck…lots of geopolitical stuff going on in the world right now. The defensive sector will have its day if a cold war erupts, which I really hope we avoid coming out of a now exhausting pandemic.
Have a Happy and safe 4th of July everyone.
Hopefully this pandemic officially ends soon.
So May came and went and after an early small selloff, the markets have recovered and are now close again to their all time highs. Something just seems odd about this slow drift up. It feels like a slight celebration of the final stages of the pandemic. But there are lots of variables in play right now (Inflation, Employment, Supply Chain Disruptions, potential add-on stimuli packages, and the pandemic moving into Japan and other countries). It’s enough for me to continue being cautious right now. One thing I do know, if you do want to borrow money, now’s the time to do it. It will never be cheaper and if you’re home has equity (very likely considering how home prices have increased in the last year or so), now’s a good time to consider a refinance. Probably the last time. Anyways, for this month, I again recommend preserving capital and waiting to see if there’s a better buying opportunity in the next few months. But if the markets keep lifting every day (remember what goes up must eventually come down), it may be a good time to start dollar cost averaging and buying dips. Until I have a better sense of where this market is heading right now I’d recommend just dabbling in the following to fill out your portfolio for right now:
- Any inflation/market hedges – Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Oil
Stay away – Crypto, COIN, etc.
Hope everyone had a safe Memorial Day weekend and we’re only a month away from the 4th of July. Happy summer everyone.
As expected, the choppiness in the markets we saw in April will most likely continue into May as well with last Thursday’s surge in the market somewhat reminiscent of a mini blow-off top…I just don’t see any big catalyst once all earnings have been announced for Q1. I think there will be a slight pullback as the markets look exhausted and as the Debt Ceiling talks intensify later this July/August when the US Debt Total Approaches and ultimately passes $30T. While I expect all Republicans to vote against increasing it, and all Dems to vote for it with Kamala breaking the tie again, all it would take is one Dem to change sides and the pullback becomes more severe. But ultimately cool heads will prevail and it should be increased particularly if the pandemic is still around. Perhaps the markets end up trading sideways until COVID is officially over in anticipation of a post-COVID celebratory year-end melt-up. Either way if you’re a speculative day trader, I’d advise now to reduce positions and take gains. If you’re a long-term trader (which Biden is trying to eliminate by raising the LT Capital Gains tax rate), I’d advise just saving cash right now. Market is still sensitive to any external shock and there’s just too much downside risk, even for me. But as I search for Value I’ll give a top 5 of some sorts, just not easy pickings right now…
- Cash (I’d be saving here in case this pullback does occur and then later buy some dips as we exit the pandemic – $50K+ if you can).
- Commercial Real Estate (over Residential right now). Values are rising and interest rates will be rising soon. But in inflationary environments, should it occur, All asset values increase. Lock in a low rate and pay down the principal. It’s like a 401K plan you get to tap into before and if you make it to 65.
- SOXL – Don’t let the semiconductor shortage scare you. That just means that Demand is outstripping Supply. Great problem to have for the industry as the economy continues to recover.
- UGL – Those who have read my posts in the past know I’m collecting gold mines constantly. Have them all over the world. Have no idea why as I really hate Gold as an investment instrument since it has no real alternative use other than being ornamental. But with China and some countries opening their gold markets back up, I think we’re seeing a bottom in gold right now. Remember should inflation kick in, All asset values increase.
- Marijuana stocks – Pick them based on perceived market share would be my advice. That’s about the only legislative item I think may get passed soon and if it does, expect these to start taking off.
Medium Short-Term Risk/High Reward – BNKU, WANT (You could pick them up here, I just like BNKU closer to $40-$45 and WANT $55-$60.)
High Risk/Low Reward – BTC, COIN
Good luck and let’s get India out of COVID…we’re almost there, I hope.
Alright, after a somewhat choppy March 2021 which I expected, the market ended the quarter on a high and the bubble begins. With Sleepy Joe Biden doing everything he can to force inflation and deflate the dollar…stimulus after stimulus after forgiving student debt after $2T Infrastructure plan…all just to make our products more appealing to emerging countries with larger population bases. Get ready America, inflation is real and everywhere I look…at the Gas Station, Toilet Paper, Hair Cuts, even the burrito I’m eating right now. Now is not the time to be long on the $USD. It’s all about future growth now and these large Corporations don’t see it in the US. Pump up the economy, reduce unemployment…only to set America up for the biggest crash ever. Enjoy it while it lasts. It won’t happen immediately, we still have a pandemic to get past which is still showing signs of one last final wave.
I wish I had a crystal ball, I really do. Because mine currently says it’ll be a choppy summer as Corporate reporting begins this month for Q1 and if I’m right, I’d expect a lot of Corporate earnings to indicate year over year revenue growth with a common caveat…increases in selling prices brought on by increases in core prices…INFLATION. Expect it to be a dominant theme over the next few months with the markets pulling and pushing as yields creep higher and Long-Term US bonds falling in value. That, combined with the big bankers and the rest of the economy taking a break and traveling for maybe the first time in over a year…There’s not a lot to get excited about right now as the markets look full to me. Low volume usually leads to short-selling in the near-term.
At least the SPAC craze appears to be taking a breather as well, but if inflation is real, I’d expect some desperation in some of these recently launched SPACs as we approach the end of next year. Increases in bond yields will put pressure on those remaining SPACs to find a company to take public, with maybe a SPAC rotation following the current rotation in the general public markets away from high growth/technology companies and into cyclicals or Company’s with proven revenue growth and profitability. Instead of sitting on cash which is earning essentially no return (ala Bill Ackman right now), if the markets do end up inflating later this year (hint, a X-mas rally seems all but certain coming off this pandemic), Mr. Ackman and SPAC Co will feel the pressure to buy into these markets again or return money to investors at no return over 2 years. Plus, if I’m not mistaken these empty SPACS flying around right now invest in low yielding government debt until they find a target, which may result in actual negative returns over 2 years when finally liquidated…not a good thing for those who invested in SPACs being launched today. So while this SPAC market takes a much needed breather, I’d expect a final round of SPAC activity later next year…call it panic buying. But who knows for certain, right? We still have a pandemic to get over.
Alas, here’s my speculative top-5 for April, knowing there appears to be more downside risk to the market in the near-term followed by a gigantic upswing once people wake up and realize asset prices are rising everywhere…
- Cash (Seems silly, right? I’m betting against the dollar but also remaining in cash. I’d just be saving here to hopefully buy in at a lower price later this summer. Plus saving cash provides you with more buying power should you find something you really like in or outside the public markets and you never, ever bet the farm on anything…$30-$50K again).
- Real Estate – Based on the increases in yields and real estate prices this year, 2021 may be the last time to buy at somewhat of a discount long-term.
- For those with long term time horizons…it’s risky but you might as well pick up the big 3 technology leveraged funds with technology being beaten down recently and after their recent split making them more affordable…TECL, SOXL and FNGU. All should benefit from a hopeful Christmas rally this year if we can just get past this stupid pandemic.
- TMV and TYO – See above discussion on yields regarding long-term Treasury Bonds, just don’t expect much in the short-term until inflation really sets in.
- Still like airline equities here (DAL and UAL are my personal favorites). All are potential M&A targets at the very least once the pandemic ends. As an aside, once/if the pandemic ever ends, expect the M&A markets to take off as Company’s still reeling from the pandemic synergize and combine together to create a better more “ESG” friendly Company.
High Risk/Low Reward – I really hate typing this but I can’t ignore the hype. Crypto – I won’t touch it, my brokerage firm won’t touch it and I think this could pose some systemic risk to the entire economy if/when this bubble ever bursts. But if it has replaced Gold temporarily as the predominant inflation hedge, I could see BTC going to $75K, easily. Just too risky, even for me.
Good luck and stay safe, hopefully a return to normalcy happens sometime in 2021…
Alright, looking at the markets, it’s tough to get too excited about much right now. The Add-on stimulus should pass this month giving the markets a bump. Covid should continue to relent, giving the markets stability and if this were any other year, I’d say sell in May and go away. But since a lot of people may not have the ability to sell and obtain long-term gain status, I’ll just throw some speculative stuff out there. Remember to always keep an emergency fund, but I think inflation has to set in at some point. Gold would be the go-go play in the past but unfortunately, until BTC goes away, gold’s gains look capped…
- TYM – If you can’t benefit off a foreseeable increase in inflation off a direct investments in gold, it’s best to attack the dollar directly. How? Through government debt. The theory is that if yields keep rising the actual value of our debt declines. This ETF is set to track the inverse of 20 year bond funds 3x.
- TYO – The value play to TYM
Any other outdoor/vacation plays should be worth watching as well.
Another interesting month in the markets. The Trump factor was real but had little impact on the markets when the attempted “Storm the Capitol” strategy failed. With Biden now entrenched in office and Georgia going blue, it paves the way for the add-on stimulus. However, another unknown has presented itself in the form of the WallStreetBets forum on reddit. While they appear to be targeting hedge funds exclusively, the impacts on the markets, while transitory at best, could cause some wild volatility in February. My guess is the add-on stimulus doesn’t get passed until March which should create excellent buying opportunities in February as long as the long-term bull trend holds and we don’t go completely backwards again on COVID-19. I’d continue to hold onto any of the mines previously posted in the top 5 stock picks, especially if the WallStreetBet guys try to target commodities next. But to survive the fluctuations in February, I’d continue to play it safe for now…
- Cash (Reducing this to $30K as most of readers hopefully took my advice and bought back into any holdings I viewed as risky – I apologize for any tax consequences this strategy may have caused, just overestimated the Trump Factor at the time).
- Real Estate – Interest rates aren’t going anywhere anytime soon
- Marijuana Stocks – Still cheap and after the stimulus, I could see Congress turning their attention to reform of marijuana laws at a federal level
- JPM – Safer than hedge funds right now
High Risk/High Reward – Short term puts on anything these WallStreetBets are pumping like GME
Continue to hold anything I’ve listed in the past 5 months or so, not named QS, JNUG, NUGT or UGL.
Alright everyone, the Trump factor is very real, as evidenced by his latest pocket veto attempt on the less than $1 trillion Stimulus that Congress was able to pass. That combined with the uncertainty of the Georgia elections and a belief that Corporate earnings will disappoint when compared to the calendar Q4 of last year, amongst other things has enough to spook me this month. Plus, by selling on either January 4th or January 5th, you push your tax gains out until 2022. At best, I say the markets trade sideways until at least the first 30 days into Biden’s first 100 days of office. Meaning, now’s a good time to take some profits, build some cash or just reallocate your portfolio. In any case, it’s time to get defensive here. All this could change with Georgia going blue, no martial-type law before the Biden inauguration, and Trump just walking out of office at the end of his term…yeah, I just don’t see it happening. So while I invest for the long-term, there is some day trading I’m going to try and do in January and hope for a pullback. Why January? If you’ve been on a run such as I have for the last 6 months (I’m up like over 350% last I checked) and I’m good at calling bottoms but somewhat questionable, as shown during the start of the Covid pandemic about calling tops, this just has all the signs of a pullback to me. Either way you’ll be ok long-term, I just think the short-term sucks. So here’s my top 5 for what I think could be a very volatile January 2021:
Cash (like bump it up again to $30K – $80K, but be ready to trade back in when the markets stabilize come February)
Real Estate – Residential or Commercial still
Equities (still love certain industries here – mostly alternative, guns and ammo, innovative Companies outside the US and of course actual gold miners making profits)
ETF’s – Be very careful here and expect a slight pullback so I will probably sell early January and wait to see what happens until Biden is inaugurated, but long-term you should be fine:
I’m on the fence about these ETF’s and will probably sell early January as they’re highly leveraged and even sideways trading will lead to decay, but long-term potential gains has me watching them very close right now (expect a significant bump once the Biden add-on stimulus passes):
I definitely dump these ETF’s:
Good luck everyone…remember – 2021 has to be better than 2020, right?