Alright everyone, the Trump factor is very real, as evidenced by his latest pocket veto attempt on the less than $1 trillion Stimulus that Congress was able to pass. That combined with the uncertainty of the Georgia elections and a belief that Corporate earnings will disappoint when compared to the calendar Q4 of last year, amongst other things has enough to spook me this month. Plus, by selling on either January 4th or January 5th, you push your tax gains out until 2022. At best, I say the markets trade sideways until at least the first 30 days into Biden’s first 100 days of office. Meaning, now’s a good time to take some profits, build some cash or just reallocate your portfolio. In any case, it’s time to get defensive here. All this could change with Georgia going blue, no martial-type law before the Biden inauguration, and Trump just walking out of office at the end of his term…yeah, I just don’t see it happening. So while I invest for the long-term, there is some day trading I’m going to try and do in January and hope for a pullback. Why January? If you’ve been on a run such as I have for the last 6 months (I’m up like over 350% last I checked) and I’m good at calling bottoms but somewhat questionable, as shown during the start of the Covid pandemic about calling tops, this just has all the signs of a pullback to me. Either way you’ll be ok long-term, I just think the short-term sucks. So here’s my top 5 for what I think could be a very volatile January 2021:
Cash (like bump it up again to $30K – $80K, but be ready to trade back in when the markets stabilize come February)
Real Estate – Residential or Commercial still
Equities (still love certain industries here – mostly alternative, guns and ammo, innovative Companies outside the US and of course actual gold miners making profits)
ETF’s – Be very careful here and expect a slight pullback so I will probably sell early January and wait to see what happens until Biden is inaugurated, but long-term you should be fine:
I’m on the fence about these ETF’s and will probably sell early January as they’re highly leveraged and even sideways trading will lead to decay, but long-term potential gains has me watching them very close right now (expect a significant bump once the Biden add-on stimulus passes):
I definitely dump these ETF’s:
Good luck everyone…remember – 2021 has to be better than 2020, right?